Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Gallo Out Will Test The Nuggets True Depth

As you likely have already heard, Danilo Gallinari will likely miss up to four weeks with a sprained ankle. On the bright side, the injury could have been a lot worse, as a bone chip was found upon examination.  Luckily for Gallo, it stemmed from an old injury and should cause a longer recovery time.

The Nuggets will be without their top scorer for the next month, which will present the team with a brutal stretch of games.  Fortunately, Arron Afflalo should be back Wednesday and Nene is a game time decision, so that will provide a bit more depth for Denver.  For the Nuggets to be successful without Gallo, those are two key guys who need to step up.

Afflalo has been pretty bad from an offensive standpoint this year.  He shooting percentage is merely 41%, down from his career average of 46%.  Defensively, Afflalo has been solid per usual.  With the absence of Gallinari, however, the Nuggets need more form Afflalo.  They need the guy they sorely missed in the playoffs last year, the player who was so reliable from deep.  Afflalo has been battling injury for much of the season, so hopefully he can put that behind him and regain the momentum he had last season.

Nene this season has shown flashes of the dominant big man he can be, but he needs to be more aggressive and go strong to the basket more often.  I see no reason he shouldn't be able to average anywhere from 15 to 18 points a game.  50% shooting from Nene is too low.  He has been taking more mid-range jumpers this season than in years past and it's showing up in the form of his low shooting percentage.  I know Nene has it in him to thunder the ball down in the paint.  Nene needs to get mean in the paint and show no mercy to his defenders.

The prime candidate to replace Gallo in my opinion should be Corey Brewer.  Brewer has been active and plays with a ton of energy every time he steps on the court.  I think because of that, though, George Karl will prefer to have him come off the bench and start Afflalo at the 3 and go with Ty Lawson and either Andre Miller or start Julyan Stone as he did against the Rockets.  Again, I think what Andre provides off the bench benefits the Nuggets greatly, but Karl has that history of not playing rookies.  It will be interesting to see how the rotation going forward shakes out.  Having multiple candidates to replace a starter is a problem I bet a number of teams wouldn't mind having, and is a testament to the depth that the Nuggets have on this roster.

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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Nene the Baby

For those of you who don't know, the name Nene means baby in Portuguese.  That name seemingly fits him perfectly.  Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post recently sat down with Nene to learn that he may opt out of his contract this offseason.  In the article, Nene goes on about how he feels unappreciated by the organization and wants the salary he thinks he deserves.  He talks about how much he has sacrificed for this team.  If you ask me, he's being a big baby.

First of all, this would be a horrible time for Nene to opt out.  With the CBA set to expire and the uncertainty of how much players can make, he would be leaving a lot on the table.  If it's money that Nene is interested in, it would be wise of him to stay under contract for the final year.

Nene complains about not being respected, and I'm not so sure his play demands full respect.  Every year, Nene is supposed to break out and have a huge season, finally live up to the potential that he has.  And every year, he plays mediocre.  With his size and athleticism, he should dominate inside.  Instead, he remains soft and unwilling to bruise inside the paint.  The most rebounds he has ever averaged in a season is 7.8 a game.  Are you kidding me?  That number should be much higher, but he's not aggressive enough.  This past year he averaged 14.5 points a game.  Nene is a guy who could easily average 20 and 10 a game and absolutely should if he expects to get paid as the top centers do in the league.

Sure, you can make the argument that he's out of position, playing center when he's really a power forward, but with the frame Nene has, he is suited perfectly to be a center.  He complains that he likes playing power forward better, but honestly, his numbers weren't any better when he did play there consistently, so I don't buy that argument.

When he says that he has sacrificed a lot for this team, that I am ok with.  This is a man who has overcome two major injuries and cancer.  He is a tough guy when it comes to that aspect of thing.  He has fought his way back on the court, and while on the court he needs to exhibit that same fighting spirt and bully people down low.

For Nene to get the respect he thinks he deserves, he's got to step up his game this coming season.  He turns 29 later this year, so the time to reach his potential is dwindling fast.  There aren't many guys his age who have finally broken through with big years after underachieving their entire careers, so Nene has to get work done, and fast.  If he choses to return to the Nuggets, he'll have some tough competition in Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufos at center.  That could also up the door for him to return to power forward, given that Kenyon Martin either doesn't return or comes off the bench next season.  Either way, Nene has something to prove next season, and I really hope he does.  Just look at game one versus the Thunder in this years playoffs.  He had a dominant game, and while they didn't win, he kept them in from start to finish.  That's the Nene I one day dream to see game in and game out.

An Ode to Todd Helton

There were a lot of questions concerning Todd Helton this offseason.  Could he stay healthy?  Could he still be productive?  Is he too old?  Todd is doing his best this year to prove those doubters wrong.

Here's a look at Helton's stat line so far this year:


 GPABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
2011 Regular Season 25831126703137800.313.370.506.876




Those are some impressive numbers if you ask me.  Todd's doing what has worked for him in the past.  He's driving the ball to the gaps for doubles, he's seeing a lot of pitches at the plate and he's getting on base.  Helton is the guy that young players should model their games after.  He the consummate pro and works his butt off day in and day out, and that's led to a successful and lengthy Major League career.


The stats speak for themselves when it comes to Todd's performance this year.  Recently, he's been one year on, one year off in terms of performance, and when he performs, the Rockies succeed.  At 37 years old, there's not a lot of time left for Todd, and he's trying to make the most of his remaining time in the bigs.


As a Rockies fan, there is no other player who exemplifies Colorado baseball like Todd.  He is, and for a long time will be, the face of the Rockies until Tulo and CarGo reach the stage Todd has.  You can talk about the Blake Street Bombers of the '90's, but to me, none of them measure up to Todd.  He stuck with this team when they were god awful.  He came to the park everyday, played his heart out and they still would lose, and for him to not abandon Colorado the way we see so many athletes do in this age of sports, that is extremely admirable and makes be proud to be a Rockies fan and a Coloradan.


As number 17's career winds down, take time to appreciate what this man has meant to the Rockies and the community.  It's not often you find a man like this in sports.  Todd Helton is a special player and will live on in Rockies lore forever.  

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Deciphering the Rockies Bats

The Rockies may be one of the greatest puzzles ever known to man.  Just when you think you have them figured out, they flip the script and become the exact opposite of what you expected.

Now I know we're a month into the season, a mere 6th of the way through.  But we've gone from seeing the Rockies being a potentially elite squad to potentially a team that struggles night to night to score runs.  And that's the missing ingredient with these Rockies, offense.  Did you ever expect to hear that phrase about them?

This team is simply not hitting.  With RISP, against lesser opponents, doesn't matter.  The Rockies are hitting a collective .238, which is atrocious.  There are two players hitting over .300, and that's Todd Helton and Jonathan Herrera.  After a hot start, Tulo has cooled off considerably, and CarGo has had difficulty in the early going this year.  Those guys will get it figured out, they are too good of players not to.  It's the rest of the team you need to worry about, namely Ianetta, Stewart and Lopez.

With Chris, the OBP is high, so he is drawing walks, but when you are hitting in the 8 hole and you have two outs with runners on, swing away, especially with the pitcher on deck.  I would much rather see Ianetta strike out swinging than leave it up to the pitcher to drive in the runs.  Chris is too hung up on power and is trying to pull the ball too much.  He's at his best when he's hitting the ball the other way and driving it to the gaps.  He has to be a key player if the Rockies are to contend, and with the slew of catching prospects in waiting, time is running short.

It's the same old story with Ian Stewart.  He has got to get his swing figured out somehow, and hopefully his recent "opportunity" in Colorado Springs helped him out with that.  Ian has raw power and when he can make contact, good things will happen, but so far in 27 at-bats, he's struck out 12 times, gotten 2 hits and walked twice.  Lucky for him, he's a defensive upgrade at 3rd and is hitting a smidge poorly than Jose Lopez.

Lopez has to hit to be in the lineup everyday, because he doesn't add much else to the team.  He's a below average defender, he doesn't get on base and even when he does, he's not much of a threat to do anything.  If I were a betting man, I would say the next minor league "opportunity" would be given to Lopez, especially with guys likes EY Jr. and Chris Nelson tearing it up in the Springs.  Lopez was added for his bat, and he had better use it before he finds himself riding the bus again.

As for bats off the bench, so far this team has none.  Giambi and Spilly have basically been non-existent.  Wiggy seemed like he might have been getting going just before the injury, so we'll have to wait on that. The Rockies need to find someone to come off the bench late in games and come through with hits.  They can do one of two thing.  The first is to bring up a guy from the minors, whether that be Amezaga, who they have already called up, Mike Jacobs or even Josh Fields.  The next would be to go after one in a trade, which, in my opinion, is the lesser attractive option.

With that being said, the Rockies are still in good position.  I would much rather see them swoon early than down the stretch, obviously.  However, the issues with the players mentioned above aren't new ones and need to be corrected soon if they are going to be at all.  It's time fore them to grab their big boy bats and start doing work at the yard

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Thursday, April 28, 2011

Denver Broncos Draft Preview: Defense is the Key

It’s that time of year again, and with the second overall pick, the Broncos are in some uncharted territory.  The key to this draft for the Broncos is simple: defense, defense, and defense.  The Broncos D was so lacking last year, they were obligated to change the name of the city to Enver (sorry, bad joke, but I couldn’t resist).  And with a scheme change to the 4-3 under new coach John Fox, there are quite a few holes on the defensive side of the ball, with the D-line being the main area of concern.

I don’t really see many offensive needs on this team.  The interior of offensive line had it’s ups and downs last year, but that was more due to inexperience than lack of talent, and we should expect improved play in that area this season.  The whole debate on whether the Broncos should take a quarterback has an easy solution.  The Broncos should absolutely not use a valuable pick on a QB.  Already under contract is Kyle Orton, who his entire career has put his teams in position to win and has been solid at the position.  Orton could start on many teams.  He’s the classic game manager QB, he won’t win the game by himself, but he will do enough to keep the Broncos in the game, not to mention he helped me win a fantasy football championship two years ago, so he’ll always have a soft spot in my heart.  And then there’s Tim Tebow, one of the Broncos first round picks from last year.  I understand that Tebow was McDaniels guy, he has questionable mechanics and not many are high on him, but you can’t argue with the results on the field.  He was impressive in his three starts at the end of last season, and single handedly beat Houston.  Did he have his problems?  Of course, he was a rookie and that’s to be expected, but there were so many positives from those games I don’t see how you can’t give the guy a chance.  And did I mention that he was a first round pick?  You can’t give up on that high of a pick this quickly.  Give him a chance, and if he doesn’t produce, then Andrew Luck will be there for you next year.

The spotlight of this years draft for the Broncos will undoubtedly be the second overall selection.  The are a couple of names floating around mock drafts and ESPN, and with this high of a pick Denver is nearly assured of getting a future star.  Here’s a couple of the guys at the top of the radar for the Broncos.

Von Miller, 6’ 2”/240, OLB, Texas A&M
This is widely believed to be who the Broncos are taking with that second pick.  Miller is a beast when it comes to rushing the passer.  He possesses incredible speed in general, let alone for the position he plays.  The game seems to come naturally to Miller, who has great football instincts.  He’s got the potential to become a team leader and has the work ethic of one.  However, he is not the right pick for the Broncos.  Not saying that he won’t be a good player, but he’s a guy for a 3-4 scheme, not the 4-3 that the Broncos are transitioning to.  He’s relatively small for his position, but in a 3-4 he’s perfect, much like Elvis Dumervil was two seasons ago.  If the Broncos drafted him, they would likely look to convert him to a D-End, meaning he’s be learning a new position and limit his impact on the team. Should a team who runs the 3-4 draft him, they have a superstar, but if the Broncos take him, with their defense, he’s destined to only be a good player.

Marcell Dareus, 6’ 3”/319, DT, Alabama
Now this is who the Broncos need to take.  He’s big, strong and quick, perfect for a 4-3 D-Tackle.  He’s got a great first step and moves very well laterally and would be a huge help on this defensive front.  With his size, he commands more attention from the other teams O-line and frees up space for other players to get to the QB, and area the Broncos were dismal in last year.  There aren’t too many questions about Dareus’ ability to perform at the NFL level.  The only question mark would be if he can hold up being a feature player and be out on the field the majority of the time.  This guy can be a superstar, and the Broncos would be wise to take him.  Dareus is a potential franchise cornerstone and could anchor a Broncos defense for years to come.

Patrick Peterson, 6’/219, CB, LSU

Peterson is on the Broncos radar simple because he may be the best player in the draft.  Corner isn’t a need for the Broncos, so this is really a long shot to happen.  He’s a shutdown corner who’s big and physical.  He has elite speed and great ball skills that also allow him to excel in the return game, which makes him a very attractive pick.  He was able to excel in the tough SEC, and that should help prepare him for the pros.  He’s a really smart player, but sometimes he will look to make a play and it’ll backfire on him and he gets burned.  He’s not a particularly strong zone defender either.  However, this guy has elite corner written all over him.  The Broncos will probably pass, but he will definitely be on their draft board.

Nick Fairley, 6’ 3”/297, DT, Auburn
Another potential pick at D-Tackle for the Broncos, Fairley dominated at Auburn last year.  He’s big and quick and has long arms to fight off the blockers.  He’s an angry dude who knows how to make plays in the backfield.  He is going to attack the ball carrier and look to hurt them.  There are a lot of questions with Fairley, though, and has fallen in many mock drafts.  Scouts question his work ethic and he’s been accused of taking plays off.  And despite his stellar year, it’s really the only body of work he has to base his performance off.  He had the one productive year at Auburn and many teams worry that he’s a “one hit wonder”.  This would be a real stretch if the Broncos took Fairley at number two with the more highly regarded Dareus, but if the Broncos look to move back and Fairley is on the board and Dareus is gone, he is a very possible option.

Four options, one pick.  The Broncos have to predict which of these players will be the best fit for their team and hope that they pick right, because you don’t want to blow the second overall pick.  This’ll be John Elway’s first draft as Broncos Executive Vice President of Football Operations, and we’ll get to see where his head is at and what he has in store for this team.  This pick can provide a foundation for years to come in Denver, and I for one hope to not see the Broncos pick this high for a very long time. 


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And The Nuggets Season is Over...

That didn’t really go as expected.

The Nuggets drop the series in four games to the Thunder.  Four of the games were close, coming down to the final seconds.  Game two was a blow out.  The entire series was filled with mistakes on the Nuggets part and really swung the game OKC’s way.  Honestly, this was a completely miserable series.

Where to start with the Nuggets mistakes?  There were so many it’s hard to choose.  First of all, the Nuggets gave up waaaaay too many second chance points the entire series.  I mean, have these guys heard of blocking out?  The Thunder have way too many bigs who can rebound and you can’t simply out-jump them.  Every game the Thunder crashed the offensive boards and Denver didn’t give much effort to grab the rebound.  You can’t give Kevin Durant a second chance to hit a shot, because chances are he’s going to knock it down.

Denver’s free throw shooting was awful.  Game one alone was essentially lost on missed free throws.  You have to take advantage of points from the line against a team like the Thunder.  OKC’s going to score, and you’ve got to go blow for blow with them, and hitting your free throws is key.  And guys who should be knocking them down were missing.  Danilo Gallinari couldn’t hit, Raymond Felton couldn’t hit.  It’s one thing for Nene to miss, who isn’t necessarily strong from the line, but Danilo Gallinari, who shot around 90% during the season?  That’s inexcusable.

Offensively, the Nuggets weren’t really looking to take it to the hole.  Nene would dump the ball off when he could throw it down, Kenyon wasn’t being real aggressive, and the guards were settling for jump shots instead of driving inside.  Obviously, the highest percentage shot is at the rim, so why not find a way to take that shot?  The Nuggets lived and died by the jump shot, and shot pretty poorly for the series.

 So the season is over, but there’s a lot to look forward to next year.  The Nuggets have a solid young nucleus of players.  The Nuggets have seven guys who will be 25 or younger on the roster to begin next season.  Ty Lawson continues to blossom, and the young players the Nuggets got form the Melo trade have upside galore.  Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov look to be solid big men for the Nuggets in the coming years, and Gallo can be a great scorer for this team.

The key free agents this year are Kenyon Martin, JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo (restricted), and Wilson Chandler (restricted).  The Nuggets have to bring back Afflalo.  He’s the best outside shooter and perimeter defender on the team.  I would like to see the other three come back as well, but only for the right price.  K-Mart is the quaterback on defense. Chandler is a good shooter and JR has the ability to take over a game by himself, but I’m not sure it makes sense to resign three guys who play the same positions essentially, so I would say at most two of the three 2-gaurds will be back.  My guess would be Afflalo and Chandler, given JR’s recent comments about not returning to Denver.

The future for the Nuggets is bright.  They are a young team who has tremendous upside, they’re athletic and can run a team out of the gym.  That youth showed this series, and that ultimately cost them the series.  So until late October, provided there is no lockout, there will be no basketball in the Mile High City, but there sure is reason for optimism


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Saturday, April 16, 2011

Denver Nuggets Playoff Preview - Bring on the Thunder!

The playoffs get underway this Sunday with the Nuggets in Oklahoma City to begin their first round series with the Thunder.  The two teams split the regular season series, however the Nuggets won both games with Carmelo Anthony playing for the blue and yellow.  Since moving to OKC, the Thunder have struggled to win against Denver.  The Thunder, led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, came on strong at the end of the season, and are out to prove that, despite their lack of experience, they are a true title contender.  The Nuggets also finished the season strong, playing their best ball after the Melo-Drama finally resided.  They play at much quicker pace these days and have found out what defense is.  These are two of the hottest teams headed into the postseason and should produce a great matchup.


The Thunder mainly get their scoring from Durant, who once again won the leagues scoring title.  Durant is an excellent scorer and can burn teams in a variety of ways.  He slashes to the bucket, pulls up in the lane, he can spot up to hit threes, he can do it all.  However, his jump shot is not very consistent.  Durant is at his best when driving to the hoop, and when teams make him settle for jump shots, they've done their job defensively.  Kevin Durant is going to score, that's just the way it is.  If the Nuggets want to keep Durant in check, they can't give him a consistent lane to the bucket.  Gallinari's size and strength should be able to effectively guard Durant, and I expect Kenyon Martin to match up on Durant as well.  It's hard to stop Durant with the combination of size, speed and strength he brings to the table, but if the Nuggets can make him a jump shooter, they've put themselves into position to win.


Russell Westbrook, OKC's point guard, has come on strong this season and earned his first all-star appearance.  In my opinion, he will end up being the best point guard of this generation.  However, he's not there yet.  In many games Westbrook tries to do too much in the way of scoring.  He'll take questionable shots and put the Thunder at a disadvantage.  But when he defers the majority of scoring to his teammates, that's when he's at his most effective.  He can score, no doubt about it, and when he's really on he puts up point in bunches.  He is also great passer and knows how to put his teammates into position to score.  And he's extremely fast.  Definitely one of the fastest players in the league. The key to this series will be the Nuggets ability to contain Westbrook.  With the assumption that Durant is going to score, the Nuggets cant let Westbrook be a scorer as well.  they have to make him a non-factor in the series.  The combo of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton at point for the Nuggets should be quick enough to keep Westbrook in front of them for the most part and keep him from taking the ball to the hole.


The other players that the Nuggets should be aware of form an offensive standpoint are James Harden and Serge Ibaka.  Harden, who is the Thunder's sixth man, can really shoot the ball from deep.  When he gets going, he's a dangerous player.  However, he's struggled to find consistency to his shot and is a very streaky shooter.  The Nuggets need to keep an eye on him at all times and not let him get an open shot to put him in a rhythm.  Ibaka is a good post player who has great quickness and athleticism for a big man.  He's really their only scoring threat down low, however.  Ibaka seems to be bothered by the length of the Birdman, and if he can take Ibaka out of the game, the Thunder don't have much of a low post presence.


This Thunder team is loaded with really good defensive players.  Thabo Sefolosha is a lock down perimeter defender and can stay with just about anyone beyond the arc.  Kendrick Perkins, acquired at the deadline from Boston, has a huge presences in the middle for OKC.  And Ibaka blocks over two shots a game and can dictate the game on defense.


The Nuggets need to control the pace of this game.  Denver is at their best when they run teams off the court.  If they let the Thunder get into a slow, half-court game, the Nuggets will lose the series.  That is simply not the style of play the Nuggets are built for.  They have athleticism at every position on the floor and should take advantage of that fact.  Also, the each Nuggets has to play consistent.  With the depth of this team, no one player has to be a star, they need to know their role and execute it.  That means Gallinari needs to get to the bucket consistently, Wilson Chandler needs to hit open threes, JR Smith needs to play the smart basketball that he has been of late.


I am hoping to see a big series from Nene.  If you watch the Nuggets regularly on Altitude, you'll notice Scott Hastings says that Nene needs to look to score more often.  The Nuggets have to establish a low post presence late in ball games, and Nene has to be at the heart of that.  With his size and skill set, Nene should be one of the top scoring big men in the NBA.  Nene too often defers his shot to other teammates when he needs to be aggressive and try to bust down the hoop.  He needs to clear the Thunder defenders out of the way and flex his muscle inside.


These two teams are young and both have very bright futures ahead of them.  If OKC keeps this core team together, they will win a championship, no doubt about it. This series will be close and a great one between two teams who should be battling for titles for year to come.  This year, however, I think the athleticism of the of the Nuggets get's the best of the Thunder.  The Nuggets beat the Thunder in seven games to move on to the second round.


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