The playoffs get underway this Sunday with the Nuggets in Oklahoma City to begin their first round series with the Thunder. The two teams split the regular season series, however the Nuggets won both games with Carmelo Anthony playing for the blue and yellow. Since moving to OKC, the Thunder have struggled to win against Denver. The Thunder, led by Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, came on strong at the end of the season, and are out to prove that, despite their lack of experience, they are a true title contender. The Nuggets also finished the season strong, playing their best ball after the Melo-Drama finally resided. They play at much quicker pace these days and have found out what defense is. These are two of the hottest teams headed into the postseason and should produce a great matchup.
The Thunder mainly get their scoring from Durant, who once again won the leagues scoring title. Durant is an excellent scorer and can burn teams in a variety of ways. He slashes to the bucket, pulls up in the lane, he can spot up to hit threes, he can do it all. However, his jump shot is not very consistent. Durant is at his best when driving to the hoop, and when teams make him settle for jump shots, they've done their job defensively. Kevin Durant is going to score, that's just the way it is. If the Nuggets want to keep Durant in check, they can't give him a consistent lane to the bucket. Gallinari's size and strength should be able to effectively guard Durant, and I expect Kenyon Martin to match up on Durant as well. It's hard to stop Durant with the combination of size, speed and strength he brings to the table, but if the Nuggets can make him a jump shooter, they've put themselves into position to win.
Russell Westbrook, OKC's point guard, has come on strong this season and earned his first all-star appearance. In my opinion, he will end up being the best point guard of this generation. However, he's not there yet. In many games Westbrook tries to do too much in the way of scoring. He'll take questionable shots and put the Thunder at a disadvantage. But when he defers the majority of scoring to his teammates, that's when he's at his most effective. He can score, no doubt about it, and when he's really on he puts up point in bunches. He is also great passer and knows how to put his teammates into position to score. And he's extremely fast. Definitely one of the fastest players in the league. The key to this series will be the Nuggets ability to contain Westbrook. With the assumption that Durant is going to score, the Nuggets cant let Westbrook be a scorer as well. they have to make him a non-factor in the series. The combo of Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton at point for the Nuggets should be quick enough to keep Westbrook in front of them for the most part and keep him from taking the ball to the hole.
The other players that the Nuggets should be aware of form an offensive standpoint are James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Harden, who is the Thunder's sixth man, can really shoot the ball from deep. When he gets going, he's a dangerous player. However, he's struggled to find consistency to his shot and is a very streaky shooter. The Nuggets need to keep an eye on him at all times and not let him get an open shot to put him in a rhythm. Ibaka is a good post player who has great quickness and athleticism for a big man. He's really their only scoring threat down low, however. Ibaka seems to be bothered by the length of the Birdman, and if he can take Ibaka out of the game, the Thunder don't have much of a low post presence.
This Thunder team is loaded with really good defensive players. Thabo Sefolosha is a lock down perimeter defender and can stay with just about anyone beyond the arc. Kendrick Perkins, acquired at the deadline from Boston, has a huge presences in the middle for OKC. And Ibaka blocks over two shots a game and can dictate the game on defense.
The Nuggets need to control the pace of this game. Denver is at their best when they run teams off the court. If they let the Thunder get into a slow, half-court game, the Nuggets will lose the series. That is simply not the style of play the Nuggets are built for. They have athleticism at every position on the floor and should take advantage of that fact. Also, the each Nuggets has to play consistent. With the depth of this team, no one player has to be a star, they need to know their role and execute it. That means Gallinari needs to get to the bucket consistently, Wilson Chandler needs to hit open threes, JR Smith needs to play the smart basketball that he has been of late.
I am hoping to see a big series from Nene. If you watch the Nuggets regularly on Altitude, you'll notice Scott Hastings says that Nene needs to look to score more often. The Nuggets have to establish a low post presence late in ball games, and Nene has to be at the heart of that. With his size and skill set, Nene should be one of the top scoring big men in the NBA. Nene too often defers his shot to other teammates when he needs to be aggressive and try to bust down the hoop. He needs to clear the Thunder defenders out of the way and flex his muscle inside.
These two teams are young and both have very bright futures ahead of them. If OKC keeps this core team together, they will win a championship, no doubt about it. This series will be close and a great one between two teams who should be battling for titles for year to come. This year, however, I think the athleticism of the of the Nuggets get's the best of the Thunder. The Nuggets beat the Thunder in seven games to move on to the second round.
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